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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 29, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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career politicians scrambling to position themselves so they are not blamed if we go over the fiscal cliff. is that leadership? no. that's shameful. before we go, let me tell you with had a gain on the markets today, although well off the highs. i'll see you tomorrow. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. have a good night. i'm melissa lee. let's get to the breaking news this hour. eamon javers joins us with the latest on the fiscal cliff negotiations in washington. eamon. >> and this is a big one, melissa. "the wall street journal" reporting just within the past few seconds here that according to republican congress aides who have talked to the wall street journal, they say they've obtained a copy of the white house's proffer here in the fiscal cliff negotiations. this is the proffer that
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apparently treasury secretary tim geithner was talking to republican leaders about today. wall street journal citing a number of specifics from this proposal. let me walk you through them and lay out the implications starting with what aides describe as the white house wanting $1.6 trillion in tax increases up front as part of any new deal. the white house wanting to continue the payroll tax credit or similar policy. the white house saying that it wants a permanent increase in the debt limit and pushing a one-year extension of jobless benefits plans. this one will be the kicker, i think, to any deal that might or might not get hashed out on capitol hill. "the wall street journal" reporting that republican aides are saying that the white house would like to see at least $50 billion in new spending to spur the economy. so in a debate we're seeing over spending cuts, "the wall street journal" now reporting at the top of this hour that the white house would like to see $50 billion in new spending. that's a new one. that might figure into a little
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bit of the rankor we saw on capitol hill. it goes against what harry reid told me today. i asked the democratic leader in the senate whether or not geithner had made a specific new offer today. he told me no, no new offer from geithner today. he said that the president had made the democrats' offer two weeks ago. clearly, the details in here are not going to be received favorably by republicans. so we can take this as part of an overall negotiating gambit. >> there are some also trading in exchange for increase in taxes on income over $250,000. a one-year postponement of looming spending cuts in defense and domestic programs, correct? >> right. and i think one of those is going to be key. the defense spending is one of the tricky areas here for republicans. they would like to see spending cuts across the board, but they don't necessarily want to see the extreme spending cuts in defense that we're going to see
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as part of the so-called sequester. so anything that can be done to bring republicans on board in terms of less cuts in defense spending would be a good thing. but clearly this proposal as it stands right here, at least according to "the wall street journal's" republican sources, is probably not one that's going to be the shape of a final deal. this is part of an overall negotiation. paper changing hands back and forth. this is the biggest poker game in the history of the world. >> what's your sense in what the gop's next move might be? >> i think they're calling for specific spending cut announcements from the democrats. you saw john boehner come out very almost angry about the fact that he says that democrats haven't given him any of those specific cuts. i think they might sit pat until they see some of these cuts coming in. the republicans feel very much, hey, we've already talked about putting revenue on the table. that's our ante in. let's see your ante in. they're waiting. the danger is the negotiation gets to a world war i trench
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style. they are trying to preserve a little bit of flexibility here, even as there's all this rhetoric we saw bouncing the market around all day today. >> if we haven't reached that trench warfare yet, i can't wait to see what it will be like at this point. >> clearly, there are negotiations going on. the fact that the journal has this paper is evidence that stuff is being traded. now, whether those negotiations are close to finalization is a different question. i saw rob neighbors, who is the white house's liaison to capitol hill, shuttling back and forth between harry reid's office and mitch mcconnell's office. the white house guy going back and forth between the two leaders in the senate physically with papers under his arm. that indicates, at least, you know, from a guy standing in the hallway, which i was today, that talks are going back and forth. you know, we'll have to see where they resolve. the paper that the wall street jurm journal is putting out now is probably not going to be the kind of thing that can form the basis of a deal that republicans
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would sign on to, especially if this is true what they're saying is the white house wants at least $50 billion in new spending at a time when everyone had been thinking what we're talking about here is spending cuts. >> eamon, is there a new dynamic here when we're watching senior staff run in between these, you know, minds versus 2010 when he people face to face with egos in the room. i'm trying to figure out, is this better or worse than that grand bargain that never happened? maybe it might be better not having the egos in a room. it certainly takes longer, but we're looking at senior staffers versus the real principals in the room, correct? >> yeah, we have seen the principals in the room so far. believe me, some of these staffers have pretty big egos too. you can't throw that out. i think you're right. i think the fact that you see these people having this conversation visibly is an indication that progress is being made or at least the talks have not shut down at all. i wouldn't be necessarily thinking that, you know, the wheels have come off this thing
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at this point. i think, you know, they're trading horses up here. that's difficult. that's what's going on. >> all right. eamon, thanks for that. eamon javers with the latest for us in d.c. you were shaking your head. the markets have been like as the cliff turns. literally a soap opera based on whoever says what. then the markets turn lower, higher, et cetera. tomorrow, what's your guess? >> this isn't horse trading. this issue is donkey trading. you heard spending cuts on defense. you heard extension of jobless claims. you heard a lot of benefits being extended. you heard increase in spending. ultimately, this doesn't sound like the things markets want to hear. it doesn't sound like the white house is compromising at all. at the end of the day, the markets, though, today put in a tremendous rally after the boehner comments, which said there's been no significant progress. in fact, i thought that we saw markets really try to put a lot of this to the side. the problem here, or the complication, is what we're talking about with "the wall street journal". we're getting these leakages.
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it's almost like blue horseshoe is really the messenger again. >> which is a wall street reference. >> i'm making a wall street movie reference because people are basically leaking information to the journal, which people have to speculate on. in fact, the markets are rallying off of this. this is dangerous. >> yeah, this is the first formal offer, by the way, from the white house. this could be the basis from which democrats and republicans come together and actually discuss and see what they're willing to give on. >> yeah, you got to believe they're not leading with their best offer. in terms of the mark, though, look at where we traded down to yesterday in the s&p. got down to 1384, 85, give or take. we talked about 1389 being a support level. we bounced off those. given these headlines, one would think we sell off tomorrow. again, 1379, we're at the upper end of that range. i think we see a selloff tomorrow. >> are you bracing? >> bracing. >> can we get this out of the way? >> people are in suspense right now. >> suspended.
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>> i have to wear suspenders now. do you mind if i stand up for a second? >> can you model them? >> i will. i've lost so much weight my pants fall off. >> so they're hanging on for the muffin top. >> i'm going to put them on, take them off. >> i haven't seen those in 20 years. >> i did my television. there you go. i did it. >> all right. well, let's move on here. despite all this gridlock in d.c., our next guest is still bullish thisell as next year. seeing the s&p 500 higher by 13% by the end of next year. let's get her take. always great to see you. >> great to see you. >> let's talk about first what's happening now in the markets. 2012, you have a 1450 price target. we're seeing all these fluctuations based on all these headlines. you're still confident we'll reach 1450. what shape will that look like? >> for the rest of the year, i
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think there might be more downside risk than upside risk at this point. we're essentially at our target for the end of the year. with all the gridlock in washington, there's. for downside at this point. i think a good place to park at this point is, you know, having a more defensive bias. one of my favorite sectors right now is consumer staples for the rest of the year. i feel like that's a great parking lot. you know, kind of a safe haven. you know, the reason i like it is unlike utilities and teleco,s it's not as expensive. it's got foreign exposure. one thing this year has reminded all of us is that no country is without its problems. so i feel like at the beginning of the year, everyone was worried about europe. middle of the year, it was china. now all of the sudden the u.s. is showing up as not necessarily the safe haven everybody thought it was. so maybe the name of the game at this point is to diversify your country exposure and consumer staples is a good place to be in
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that type of environment. >> in terms of your target for next year, 2013, it seems to difficult to think about what next year will look like given we don't know what sort of bargain will be reached. hopefully there will be one eventually. your target is 1600, which would imply the 13% up side. is there anything that could happen out of the fiscal cliff negotiations that could cause you to ratchet down that expectation? >> sure. so here's the worst case scenario. we go over the cliff for an extended period of time and that a basically throws us into a global recession, a u.s. recession that bleeds into a global recession. in that case, you know, i would not necessarily be as bullish as i am today. but i actually think that we get our act together. we come up with a reasonable solution. maybe a messy kind of multistage fix. but we do get to some kind of a point of clarity come mid next year. at that point, i think what drives the market higher is that corporations who are sitting on tons of cash actually start to
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spend it and do something interesting and growth acreative with all the capital they've been hoarding. >> when you say they'll get to something -- how long do you think they have? i think they really don't have very long at all after the beginning of the year. >> i agree. i think the longer they wait, the worse it gets. what i think happens is the market -- >> but they can do it retroactively. >> they can, exactly. >> but if you think about the last time what happened, august 2nd came and went. i forget what the exact day was. the market absolutely started to fall apart. >> to avoid that panic, because everyone sets up, and both sides -- or i should say the republicans have a vested interest in creating a chaotic environment. >> some panic and drama. >> but they can retroactively fix it. >> sure. i think the market actually serves as kind of a feedback mechanism. if you think about the day after t.a.r.p. failed to pass. the market sold off, like a 9% drop in a one-day period. then all the sudden the
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policymakers started panicking and did something. i mean, i hope we don't get to that type of environment, but that's why i think there is actually more downside risk at this point because, you know, from everything we're hearing, you know, who knows what's really going on, but it doesn't sound like any sort of concerted efrlt is being made at this point. >> good to see you. i'm sure the next 31 days will be very interesting for you as the 1450 is fast approach. we'll see if you hit it on the nose. >> one more thing about your point of feedback. i'm surprise the vix is lower and touching 15. >> right. >> seems surprisingly low and calm. >> complacent. >> exactly. let's get a quick market flash and look at shares of yum plunging after hours. about 7% decline here. the company says it sees slower earnings growth in 2013. warning of weaker fourth quarter as well. part of the selloff could be the massive run yum has been on. in fact, a couple 52-week highs, maybe all-time highs, over the past couple sessions.
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>> we own yum. we actually added the position a couple days ago. this is definitely a surprise. this china outlook, again, they are banking on china growing 15% plus. the thing that people got on them essentially on their last round of numbers was the margin degradation was an issue for these guys. if they're not growing the top line, people are going to be very, very scared. it's a surprise here because the u.s. is actually somewhat stronger. they have reaffirmed the entire 2012 numbers. these are guys that say we're going to grow the top line 15%. >> all right. going to have to break here. tiffany's blue box filled with losses instead of die mopds. is it a warning sign for luxury retailers? we have a special report. that's up next. later on, should you believe in r.i.m.'s run? we'll take a deeper dive and tell you how to play it. stick with us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm so into it,
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♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] while you're getting ready for the holidays, we're getting ready for you. tis the season. for food, for family, and now, something extra -- for you.
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welcome back. i'm julia boorstin with breaking news on zynga and facebook. zynga shares plummeting more than 10% after hours on news that zynga, the social game maker, and facebook, the social network, have changed their terms of service substantially. the new terms allow facebook to develop its own games. they also say that facebook does not have to deliver on certain guarantees of growth. the good news for zynga is it won't have to use facebook ad units or facebook's payment system. zynga says this will allow them more flexibility. the truth is that the market thinks this is very bad news for zynga. meanwhile, facebook is trading flat.
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back to you. >> what's your sense in terms of could facebook buy games from other people now? was there an exclusivity that was the issue before? >> well, up until now, facebook has said it has not been interested in developing its own games. it's really treated zynga as its primary games partner. what's interesting about this change is this follows the fact that zynga games has not been performing well on facebook. facebook has seen success from other developers. this indicates that facebook doesn't want to be tied to zynga. they want to be the freedom to do their own games. because these games are so low cost, there's high potential upside. >> all right, julia. thanks for breaking that down. what's your take in terms of gaming? if facebook's saying they don't want to be tied to zynga, that's not exactly a vote of confidence if zynga games. >> i think -- i don't know if you play zynga. you have to have real -- >> it's not my kind of thing. >> you have to have a real iron-clad stomach. the most important thing is how you play facebook.
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we sat at this desk when it was $19. short interest was at extreme lows based on the prior months. facebook still looks like the play with developing more ad face for thspace for them. >> you would think the zynga short should be bigger than it is. it's only about 7%. my sense is they'll add to that. i think we've cautioned to stay away from this. still, don't dive into this pool yet. i thought steve was asking karen -- >> do you play zynga games? that's what i thought too. >> are you a gamer? >> not a gamer. i wonder would facebook ever buy zynga? i don't know. >> all right. let's talk some tiffany now. losing some luster today, falling 6% on weak guidance, taking other high-end retamers down along with it. is this a red flag for luxury retailers? take a listen to what the burberry ceo had to say in a first on cnbc interview.
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>> typically, luxury, though, does outperform most other sectors, if you will, in good or bad times. you know, i think that our customer is probably being a little more conservative. you can't talk about the luxury customer in the aggregate either. >> i guess the biggest question is was this a tiffany-specific problem or a problem with the high-end consumer? maybe a little bit of both. if you look at tiffany's numbers, it was a product shift. inventories grew 11%. >> i think you're right. i think it's a mix of both. maybe some concern. a lot of very specific guidance. some names hung in there okay, even in the high-end retail space. ralph lauren hung in there pretty well, considering what could have been a very bad day. >> yeah, i think it's positioning. i think they have difficult positioning in asia right now, especially in the upper end of the luxury. we've talked about the fallout of asia luxury demand.
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silver sales at the bottom. this has really fallen off. i think these guys are trapped in the middle of their own success. >> you made a point. inventory up 11%. what struck me was their operating margins, which are typically decent. they were 18% last year. they're down to 13.8%, which is a significant drop. when you start to see a dip in operating margins for a company like tiffany's, who doesn't d discount, it's a concern. >> macy's or nordstroms. they have their first comp month sales down for the month of november. for the first time in three years. so everyone got a little bit crazy about this. this was definitely a hurricane sandy event. the beginning of the month was terrible, the back end of the month was good, but it wasn't enough to make up for what they witnessed the first part of the month. i think you buy this on weakness. >> let's get to kate kelly.
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she has some news. what's the latest? >> melissa, the sac staff called, a second of its kind in two weeks just wrapped up a short time ago. it lasted less than half an hour. in it, sec management sought to reassure their employees. they have more than 1,000 people they employ. they wanted to reassure employees that steve cohen, a, has though plans to retire contrary to some talk out there today. two, that he is not personally entangled in this current government investigation. well, rather in the current government complaint over insider trading allegations against a former trader as well as one of sac's subsidiary units. there was talk that he may be charged in the coming months, but the staff has reassured them
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it'sed a rye s ed advisers that chargcharg charged along with a doctor who allegedly provided information to this insider. not cohen personally. as far as i'm told, the staff mood has been relatively stable. people are obviously concerned, but cohen has been going around and actually meeting with portfolio managers one on one, melissa, to try to reassure them this should be business as usual and he's not going anywhere. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. if there is liability for the firm, who bears that liability? do the investors in the firm, or when they say the firm, is that equity owners of the firm? >> in this case, they put safeguards in place a few years ago such that steve cohen is personally financially responsible for any legal issues. so lawyer fees as well as diskorchment of ill gotten gains if cases come to that. they put that protection in a little while ago. it would seem investors are
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really walled off from these troubles. unless it goes down such a road that cohen's own continuity as the head of the firm and an active trader is in question. so at least in terms of legal fees, they are protected. >> all right. kate, thanks for the update. let's get to cnbc's jane wells. she's joining us with a look at what's coming up next. hey, jane. >> hey, melissa. well, microsoft sales surface will trade sync due to a port strike, and i may have been wrong in my celebrity stock trade call earlier this week. we'll have that next. with the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies and narrow down to exactly those stocks you want to follow. i'm mark allen of fidelity investments. the expert strategies feature is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
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shares settling lower after yesterday's surge. karen owns shares of timken. she's breaking down the fine print on this. i'm sure a lot of people out there are not familiar with timken. >> timken, ball bearings. he knew it. he was all over it. ball bearings, specialty steel. but this is an important event. this is a stock that i think is actually very attractive, even
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here, even with the run-up yesterday. gave some back today. relational is really an excellent value investor. they're not here for a quick trade. they will be here. they will continue to put pressure. i think if i were the board of timken, you know, things have changed. i think they have to start listening. calstrs also a very important investor as well. they represent, you know, the california state employees. that's an important investor to have. they're making noise about this. i think it's something the board really shouldn't ignore. they've put forth a nonbinding proposal that will be up for next year's annual meeting. i think if shareholders vote for it, which i think there's a reasonable shot they will, the board really has to listen to that. they can choose to ignore it. they do have a duty as well. this will add pressure. relational is not going away with the board saying, yeah, we looked at it, we rejected it. >> the back story is it's a family owned company run by
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generations in this family. they have already responded to relational in this disclosure. they say the time is not right now to spin off the steel business. the steel business diversifies the operations and provides cost savings for the steel and ball bearings business to have these operations together. >> that's what they always say. they never say, yeah, there's no synergy, but we like them together. they always say why they should be together. but i think, you know, relational is a very good investor. they're not going to leave just because they rejected. they're a big shareholder. relational is big here. they're not -- this is a reasonable size stake. we don't know that they're done buying either. >> that's true. >> they just had to file because they hit over 5%. i don't know if they're buying more. this will play out kind of slowly, but i'm hanging on to all our shares. >> all right. we'll keep you posted. meanwhile, from mobile devices to medical marijuana, we have you covered in the west
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coast wrap. >> we start north of redmond. anybody planning on buying a surface tablet? >> i don't know which one to buy p there are so many. >> well, microsoft surface rt isn't selling as well as expected. now microsoft has come out with pricing on the windows 8 pro version, which comes out after new year's. it ain't cheap. t the 128 gig version, $999. >> nuts. >> wow. >> but you're getting a full kind of pc experience on this tablet, which is what they're claiming. isn't that the whole -- >> don't you think it's a little confusing? the first tablet was a real tablet. this one is a computer. to your point, it's a cheaper computer, but i don't know -- >> it's not even cheaper. >> it's still in a price mode where you can get a computer. >> i'm not buying it. >> no. >> i am on microsoft shares
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though, sadly. >> and the app store. we've said it a lot of times here, they don't have the apps that are up to speck just yet. they need to cultivate that a bit more. you have to have the developers really throw in there. i think there's a bunch of reasons why you can go on that part. >> jane, take it away. >> the nation's largest port complex is in the third day of a strike by clerical work weers w long shoreman. they're calling it invalid. only one cargo container terminal is still functioning at the l.a. port. only three at long beach. most holiday goods already in stores. today the national retail federation has asked the president to step in and spur negotiations. they're trying to avoid the catastrophe ten years ago. >> and who could benefit if there is a strike? >> that's it? six guys in a windbreaker? >> it's raining. >> somebody like a fedex, you know, who business would go over to them if goods need to be flown in.
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way more expensivexpensive. retailers and others hate to do it. >> well, most of the products are already on shore. >> for the holidays. if this is extended -- and they'll just be diverted to other ports. there are other ports. it could be good for mexico. finally, my celebrity stock trade from tuesday may have been premature. >> accumulate lindsay lohan shares because she has bottomed. after the reviews from "liz and dick" on lifetime, there's only upside left. >> short into that rally. >> you're not a believer of lindsay lohan's bottom? is that what you're saying? >> i want to be an optimist. >> and you picked lindsay lohan to do it. >> well, guess she hasn't bottomed yet. she was arrested in new york last night or overnight on charges of punching a woman at a nightclub. now police are charging her with lying when she claimed her assistant was driving her porsche last june when it
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crashed. >> i'm a buyer of kim kardashian's bottom. >> how do you accumulate that when it goes against you? >> i am not giving up. i'm going to buy on the dips. i'm not a hater. >> i think you're buying right now then. >> jane, your first trade after losing what has to be -- >> can you cut this in half? >> i'll ride it all the way down. >> enjoy that. >> i'll join you. >> on that note, jane, we'll see you tomorrow. jane wells. coming up next, is research in motion a true turn around or just a trade? we'll look at the stock's recent run and tell you if you should buy or beware. plus, we check the charts to find out if you should be ignoring the fiscal cliff and piling into stocks. it's after this break. stay tuned. ♪ [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house,
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welcome back to fa"fast mo " money." we're live in times square. r.i.m. rising to its highest level in six months and a big upgrade from analysts.
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they cite the blackberry 10 launch. analysts, by the way, also recently upgraded the blackberry maker pushing it to its biggest monthly gain since april of 2009. you can see how the upgrades came in. new research says by year's end, research in motion will lose the enterprise market to not only apple but to android as well. so is r.i.m. truly turning around, or is the recent rally good for just a trade? we should be clear that goldman sachs did say, is this an investment or trade? they say only time will tell. that's quoting the report directly. they say at least for now it's a trade because consensus on wall street for the next four quarters, simply too low. where do we go here? >> quickly, and we pointed this out the other day, look at the way it traded today. the 50% retracement of the 52-week high we saw at 1670 or 1877 and a 52-week low of 1622
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is 12 1/2 to the penny. i'm in the camp that this is probably headed lower again. >> let's check in at the options desk tonight. what do you see in r.i.m.? >> certainly makes sense that r.i.m. does go lower here. we did see option activity, people buying puts on the nine strike here. expecting r.i.m. maybe to fall lower. one thing that's positive about whole r.i.m. story is when you get these stocks that have been beaten down, nobody wants to own it, and they start to rally. it's a good sign for the broader market, at least my take on things. the broader market wants to put money to work somewhere. r.i.m. may be headed lower. that 50% retracement is a good price for you to make at least a resistance point. i think it's good news for the broader market that money is being put to work on such beaten down names. >> goldman also points out, short interest 20%. that is the highest here we've seen. >> and i do think brian's on to something there. as soon as you see this market turn around here, people rush to buy anything.
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you buy those beaten up names. you buy those names to short cover. you never know once that -- every rally starts with a short covering rally. there's a little trade school for you. >> every rally? >> everyone scampers. all that it's monfast money sta rolling out. >> every gift begins with "k" too. >> tim knows that well. >> that's right. >> some wall street firms telling clients to ignore the fiscal cliff and buy stocks. should you be more cautious? we discuss the fundamentals earlier. let's tackle the technicals now. let's check the charts. chris verone, what do you see right now? >> i suspect we're going to have a difficult time making a ton of progress through that 1430, 1450 resistance range right here. i see two problems. one is a momentum problem. two is a trend problem. when we talk about momentum, i want to focus on the number of
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s&p stocks that are making new one-month highs. we had about 25% of the s&p make a one-month high today. that doesn't compare too favorably to the number of stocks making new one-month highs after the june 2012 low and after the october 2011 low when we were up to 60, 70, 80% of stocks making one-month highs. the momentum thrust hasn't been present just yet. the second problem is trend. we only have 55 or so percent of stocks right now above that 200-day moving average. most stocks still have resistance on top of them. i think that puts a cap on us in that 1430, 1450 range. >> does this necessarily mean that we trade sideways or trade lower? what is the direction you see? >> i suspect the market does very little of anything over the next four or five weeks as this fiscal cliff situation is digested. we've been telling clients stay bullish on the good ones, stay bearish on the bad ones, and
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remain agnostic on the whole. i think environments where trend and momentum are not assets, you really need to focus on extraordinary charts. extraordinary charts don't need the benefit of a good market trend or good market momentum. so i would focus on names that are above upward sloping 200-day averages that are breaking out to new 52-week highs. generally avoid those pictures that remain stuck in their ranges. >> you flagged a couple good looking charts in your view. construction materials and one stock within that sector. >> sure. we're seeing a massive bearish to bullish reversal that's played out really over the last two or three years. i think the key takeaway here, this is a name that broke out today through 50, through 51. there's not much resistance to about 60. it has good relative strength is above the 200-day moving average. it has all the character itseis we're looking for. >> there's also been a deal on
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that. that deal might still be on the table. that chart looks good as well. looks like both stocks would benefit from a possible deal.st. the fundamental story is there's a sandy trade with all the rebuilding expected to happen later this year as well as in the first couple quarters of the next year. >> if you look at the crb, which a lot of people were looking at both the crb and the baltic drive in the commodity super cycle run up. but the crb is a leading indicator. this is resins, rubber. this gives you an idea of whether we're seeing real follow through in the economy. overall, i don't think you go steam rolling into this. this is what the housing market is telling you. >> all right. let's hit pops and drops. we kick it off with a pop.
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>> you know i like realogy. more to come. >> freeport mac was a pop today. >> part of this is speck. part of it is real. copper is going to be a deficit, at least if you listen to what the chinese supplies are telling you. freeport at 3960 has a lot of resistance. you're just about there. >> barnes & noble was a drop today, a big one. 11%. >> i'll refrain from the jokes, although there are many. we've cautioned against this one, although it has had a nice bounce. the quarter was lousy. there was news around 3:00 that might have been construed at bullish. i think it goes lower. >> why refrain from them? >> usually you jump right into them. >> this is a nice time of year to go to barnes & noble. hang out for seven or eight hours. >> read. >> put your name tag on in case you forget who you are. it's all good. >> all right.
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moving on. pop for kroger up 4%. >> kroger is basically your old school supermarket where whole foods is the trendy one. it's been outperforming whole foods. i'd say with kroger. i would play haines celestial. >> pop for facebook, up 3%. >> well, piper javr ri reported facebook might go with a wanted button. they feel like this could generate about $10 billion in revenue by 2015. they upgraded the stock a little bit. this is somewhere where facebook is trying to go after google in the search technology and garner people's ways they're looking around the internet. this could be something facebook could be profitable for. >> all right. a pop for the concrete jungle. sometimes new york city can be a wild place. staten island residents were shocked to see a full-grown zebra chasing a pony down a busy street. the elusive e kwiens escaped
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from their enclosure and decided to take a lap down, appropriately named, victory boulevard. after earning their stripes, the zebra and pony were returned unharmed. >> is that a male zebra chasing -- >> are they different -- i mean -- >> zebras don't know. i'm just saying. >> i've seen that strange couples thing. just saying. coming up next, guy and his suspenders will take a victory lap. he also has some explaining to do. find out as we hit the good, the bad, and the ugly. stay tuned. at merrill lynch, we understand the importance of your goals. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before.
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a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch.
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let's get a market flash. supervalu plunging 18% after talks have stalled with potential buyer. the report went on to say lenders were concerned about the debt management. what do you think is going on? >> it is a very, very levered situation. i'm wondering if the debt markets are tightening up a little bit. we saw advanced auto parts, not
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as many bidders as people had hoped. i would not play this one. the short interest is gigantic. the balance sheet is terrible. somebody's going to make money. too dangerous. >> all right. sometimes it's tough to buy the losers and sell the winners. let's play a little hold 'em or fold 'em with two stocks hitting all-time highs. first up, lowe's. it's up more than 70% over a ten-year period. >> although i prefer home depot to lowe's because it has a history of outperforming lowe's, i think both will continue to climb that ladder. the charts both look amazing to me. hurricane sandy has really lit a flame under both of them. i think you have a little more time with these. a couple months ago, i was a little suspect of the two names. i thought they were topee. i don't think so anymore. >> so you would hold. hold lowe's. it's hold them or fold them. stick to the rules. next up, visa making its way to another all-time high. karen, you like visa. >> well, i am long mastercard, which is kind of the same thing.
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i continue to hold it. so hold them. >> holder. holding. vi visa. let's get to gun maker stern ruger. it's jumped more than 1000% over four years. that's crazy. what a crazy chart. >> we've talked about this in our sons of anarchy trade. right or wrong. it's interesting that on a day when yesterday there was no violent crime in new york city for the first time in quite some time, certain ruger making all-time highs. big short interest. you hold this. you continue to hold. wait for a $2 million share volume day. hold. don't fold. why would you fold? got to be in. >> it's up 1000%. >> at 500% we're having this conversation. it's up 5500%. why don't you fold? bang-up job. all right. coming up, guy and his suspenders will break down the good, the bad, and the ugly.
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dollar general one of the few retail stocks that actually finished in the green today with earnings around the corner. how are options traders positioning themselves? brian, what did you see?
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>> well, dollar general is being added to the s&p 500 on friday, melissa. we saw option traders buying calls, specifically to december 25 1/2 calls were extremely active. traders expecting dollar general to trade north of 53.10 and rightfully so. there's going to be about 2 1/2 million shares being purchased for the s&p to get well balanced. >> all right. well, sometimes our traders hit it out of the park. sometimes they swing and they miss. let's play "the good, the bad, and the ugly." first the good with our own guy and his suspenders. about a month ago, he saw an opportunity to get long serner. >> if you look at the fact the stock has really sold off over the last couple months, even with the move today, i think this is a story that's worth watching. i do think it's a stock that's continually worth owning. >> guy turned out to be right.
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it's up about 13%. what do you do? >> stay with it. i think it's a great story. i think cerner is still a hold. see how forceful i was with the hand motion? >> what color suspenders were you wearing that day? >> i didn't have them on. >> weird. >> on to the bad. last month guy thought it was a good time to short shares of expedia. >> i got to look at the valuation on this one, but my sense is this is going to be one of those opportunities, if you're not in it now to maybe try to put on a short position with a tight stop. >> see? no hand gestures. >> and it didn't work out well. expedia up 18%, all-time high yesterday. >> yes, it was. >> clearly in the aggregate. if you go back and do a little homework, folks. around late october, it went from 50 to 56. today it looks painful for me. >> it would be. >> actually, it was not a bad
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call. i had the same shirt on. different tie combination though. >> which is surprising. >> what's the ugly? >> uh-oh. >> put your suspenders back on. >> what were you going say? >> do we have any ugly? the name of the thing is good, bad, ugly. >> those are good looking legs. >> with the brown suspenders that day. >> bow leg. >> my legs were straight, i would be about 6'7". birds could fly through my legs. just saying. >> all right. we got to take a break. we got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks, options with potential opportunity, futures and forex with in-depth analysis.
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and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm going b-i-g. [ male announcer ] good choice business pro. good choice. go national. go like a pro. tonight on cnbc's "sports biz" marvin miller invented baseball free agency which changed sports business forever. nhl players association director talks about how miller's experience factors into today's negotiations. tune in tonight. final trade time. tim. >> ewz short. >> guy. >>

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